What it would cost the Colts to trade up for Marvin Harrison Jr.

Even though most Indianapolis Colts fans know how unrealistic it is, they can't help but hope that Marvin Harrison Jr. will end up a Colt. 

I think the odds are beyond slim that the Colts would pull the trigger on such a big move. But I decided to look at what it would cost them to move up and help Harrison Jr. follow in his father's footsteps of being drafted by the Colts. 

How high could the Colts trade up? 

When looking at this year's draft, it seems already written that QBs will be selected with each of the top three picks, meaning the highest pick for the Colts to consider trading up to pick four, currently owned by the Arizona Cardinals. There's also a lot of chatter around the league that another QB needy team could look to move up to pick four to select the fourth QB in the draft as well. This would open up pick five, owned by the Los Angeles Chargers, as a potential spot for the Colts to trade up. And finally, if the Chargers, potentially one of the rumored teams, do not have Harrison Jr. as their WR 1 in this class, he could fall to pick six where the New York Giants currently sit.

That adds up to three picks that the Colts could attempt to trade up for. Picks five and six would likely cost the same package, but with that fourth pick, the Colts would likely be competing with teams looking to trade up for a QB, and that's a tall task to beat. So the spot I think the Colts would need to target is pick five with the Chargers after QBs go 1 through 4. And with the Chargers having multiple roster holes after parting ways with multiple starters this offseason, the opportunity of adding more picks could interest them

Figuring out the cost

The Colts currently hold the 15th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, which would require them to move up ten spots, and the price won't be cheap (obviously). I decided to look at some recent first-round trade-ups that weren't for a quarterback that could be used as a starting point. One that came to mind was a trade in 2021, where the Miami Dolphins moved up from pick 12 to pick 6 with the Philadelphia Eagles to draft Jaylen Waddle. The trade cost the Dolphins the 12th pick, their 4th round pick in 2021, and their 1st in the following year in 2022 to receive pick 6 and a 5th round pick from the Eagles. 

Now, the situation isn't exactly the same as the trade I'm attempting to build for the Colts'. That gap was only six picks, and Waddle was the second WR drafted and the third pass catcher overall after Kyle Pitts (pick 4) and Ja'Marr Chase (pick 5). This gap would be 10 picks, and Harrison Jr. would be the first WR and first non-QB drafted in this year's class. So, the package would need to be larger than what the Dolphins sent, but it's useful to build the framework of a deal. 

My prediction for the cost for the Colts to trade up to 5:

• Colts send: 15th pick, 46th pick (2nd round), and a 2025 1st round pick
• Chargers send: 5th pick, and 105 (4th round)  

According to Rich Hill's NFL Draft trade chart, pick five in this year's class is worth 468 points, and the Colts' 15th pick is worth 315 points, a 153-point difference. And with Harrison Jr. being such a highly touted draft prospect, the Colts would need to overpay quite a bit to get a deal done.

Pick 46 in the second round is valued at 128 points, which brings the Colts' package up to 443 points. The rule of thumb when trading a future pick is to discount a round for each additional year on the draft pick. So, for the Colts 2025 1st round pick, we would operate as if it were a 2024 2nd rounder. If we assigned it as the middle of the round at pick 16, that is listed as 121 points, bringing the Colts' total value up to 564. When we add pick 105 from the Chargers, which is assigned 32 points, that brings their total up to 500 points. 

So the Colts end up giving up 64 additional points in the deal, which is the equivalent of pick 74 in the 3rd round. Even after offering a deal that the trade charts say benefits the Chargers, it's not guaranteed that they wouldn't choose to take Harrison Jr. themselves. But if a deal were to get done, this is roughly what I believe it would cost the Colts.